{"id":10482,"date":"2025-10-17T15:22:51","date_gmt":"2025-10-17T21:22:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/?p=10482"},"modified":"2025-10-17T15:22:51","modified_gmt":"2025-10-17T21:22:51","slug":"why-mmm-makes-marketers-nervous-and-why-you-should-use-it-anyway","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/?p=10482","title":{"rendered":"Why MMM makes marketers nervous \u2014 and why you should use it anyway"},"content":{"rendered":"<div><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" src=\"https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png\" class=\"attachment-large size-large wp-post-image\" alt=\"\" loading=\"lazy\" \/><\/div>\n<p>Mention <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/martech.org\/marketing-mix-modeling-a-marketers-guide\/\" rel=\"noopener\">marketing mix modeling<\/a> (MMM) to a performance marketer and you\u2019ll get a strong reaction \u2014 either total excitement because it\u2019s all anyone\u2019s talking about or the look my client gave me when I brought it up, like they\u2019d just swallowed something bad.<\/p>\n<p>The reactions rarely reflect what MMM actually is or how it should be used. The excited crowd sees it as the cure for every attribution problem \u2014 a way to finally bring clarity to messy data. They\u2019re often channel managers burned by last-click reporting.<\/p>\n<p>The skeptics usually had a bad experience. In my client\u2019s case, the problem wasn\u2019t MMM itself \u2014 it was how they used it. The person running the model also purchased the TV media and conveniently made TV look like the hero.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve seen this happen countless times when leading cross-channel measurement projects.\u00a0<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Search teams defend last-click.\u00a0<\/li>\n<li>Social and programmatic folks lean on platform reports because they flatter their numbers.<\/li>\n<li>CTV or TV buyers push incrementality tests or MMM because it\u2019s all they have.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That\u2019s the real danger: when every team picks the measurement system that makes them look best, no one gets the whole picture. The business ends up with conflicting numbers and no clear answer to the only question that matters \u2014 how do we optimize campaigns and budgets to drive real growth?<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Why MMM feels both scary and antiquated<\/h2>\n<p>MMM gets a bad rap. It feels old-school \u2014 and for years, performance marketers have laughed at MMM decks while high-fiving the CFO over attribution reports. But here\u2019s the twist: that old-school vibe is precisely why it matters again.<\/p>\n<p>Privacy laws and tracking changes are making the web look a lot more like the past, when you couldn\u2019t follow every user across devices and platforms. MMM doesn\u2019t rely on stitching together user paths, and at this point, neither can MTA. That makes MMM newly relevant.<\/p>\n<p>Why does it feel scary? Because marketers treat it like a replacement for last-touch attribution \u2014 their old (and false) single source of truth. With MMM, you could run 10 different models \u2014 all with excellent statistical fit \u2014 and get 10 different stories about where to spend.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>That ambiguity freaks people out when they\u2019re used to seeing one neat number in one report. It\u2019s the same discomfort teams have with confidence intervals in incrementality testing (<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/posts\/thomasbleonard_seeing-a-lot-in-my-feed-about-confidence-activity-7349102909399187456-v-C7?utm_source=share&amp;utm_medium=member_desktop&amp;rcm=ACoAAAxNknsB9lfo6sO9jnQS9LIhHqvYnX4dQpw\" rel=\"noopener\">despite my belief that they are a feature, not a bug<\/a>).\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Even worse, once teams accept that MTA belongs in the past, they rush to sign an MMM vendor to solve all their problems. When finance pushes back on cost, MMM gets put on a pedestal as the savior instead of what it actually is \u2014 a tool. One that works best when paired with incrementality testing to validate what the model is really telling you.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Dig deeper: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/martech.org\/unlocking-the-power-of-marketing-mix-modeling-solutions\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Unlocking the power of marketing mix modeling solutions<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Making MMM less scary: A workflow that actually works<\/h2>\n<p>Here\u2019s how I like to make MMM less intimidating and more useful.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">1. Start with a go-dark incrementality test<\/h3>\n<p>Run a full program holdout. How much revenue disappears when media is paused? Is that topline contribution worth it, given your margins and the spend to generate it? This exercise helps build credibility with financial stakeholders.<\/p>\n<p>Create simple models in Excel or Google Sheets: if product margins are 50% and $1 million in media only drives $1.5 million in topline, you\u2019re underwater. That clarifies the real use case for MMM \u2014 aligning with finance on whether the goal is topline growth (even at the expense of margin), profitable growth or cutting fat to boost earnings.<\/p>\n<p>In this context, MMM pinpoints where to redistribute or reduce media spend when current efforts are dragging down the P&amp;L.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2. Use the quiet time to get your data house in order<\/h3>\n<p>While the test runs, you\u2019ve got four to six weeks to clean your data and build a hierarchy. This step is critical. To feed a model, you need to group your campaign data thoughtfully \u2014 broad enough to show curves, but specific enough to be actionable.\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u201cAll of Facebook\u201d is too broad, and \u201cevery campaign name\u201d is too granular. Consider prospecting versus retargeting, or branded versus non-branded search. The right level of detail depends on your media scale, but the goal is to mirror how you plan budgets and where performance naturally varies.<\/p>\n<p>This is also the time to outline your marketing calendar so product launches, promotions and other events are captured. You don\u2019t want random campaigns that ran during a big sale to get overcredited. It\u2019s easy to overthink this step, but start simple. You already know which promotions and launches skew your numbers. Review recent reports where you\u2019ve noted those spikes and flag them for the model.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Dig deeper: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/martech.org\/4-steps-to-kickstart-incrementality-without-overcomplicating-it\/\" rel=\"noopener\">4 steps to kickstart incrementality without overcomplicating it<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">3. Run the models, then don\u2019t freak out<\/h3>\n<p>Whether you\u2019re using an open-source package or a vendor, you\u2019ll probably get several well-fit models. Don\u2019t panic if they disagree. MMM is just math \u2014 it has no outside context. That\u2019s why you start with incrementality testing: it\u2019s your north star for which model to trust.<\/p>\n<p>Look for the one whose baseline (or intercept) aligns directionally with what your go-dark test revealed about organic vs. media-driven revenue. That\u2019s your anchor point. Then apply some institutional knowledge \u2014 carefully. You\u2019re not trying to make the model tell the story you want to be true, only to confirm it reflects how your business actually operates.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">4. Run channel decomposition and test planning<\/h3>\n<p>Once you have a model you trust, use it carefully. The goal isn\u2019t to declare the MMM finished. Like any measurement tool, its value comes from action, not insight. Your job now is to make smarter bets, validate them outside the model and feed those learnings back in. That\u2019s the MMM flywheel.<\/p>\n<p>A few examples:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Meta prospecting looks like it\u2019s contributing 5% of the topline with room before diminishing returns? Perfect. Push spend and see if topline scales along the curve. Too large to notice at a national level? Run a geo test by increasing spend in some markets and holding others steady.<\/li>\n<li>CTV looks like the hero? Hold it out in a few designated market areas and see if your incremental ROAS estimate falls within the model\u2019s confidence interval.<\/li>\n<li>A channel shows no diminishing returns? Don\u2019t trust it unquestioningly. Run a scale test \u2014 keep some markets steady, increase others by 50% and double spend in a few more. Chances are the model just hasn\u2019t seen that level of spend before.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong><em>Dig deeper: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"http:\/\/the%20smarter%20approach%20to%20marketing%20measurement\/\" rel=\"noopener\">The smarter approach to marketing measurement<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The point<\/h2>\n<p>MMM isn\u2019t the end-all, be-all. It won\u2019t save you from hard attribution conversations. It\u2019s a tool \u2014 one of several \u2014 built to help you make more confident, data-driven decisions. With realistic expectations and a clear framework for turning insights into action, MMM becomes a valuable part of your performance marketing workflow, rather than another black box to debate.<\/p>\n<p>Used well, it creates a shared language between marketing and finance. It gives marketers a structured way to quantify impact and test hypotheses that attribution can\u2019t \u2014 and that incrementality testing alone isn\u2019t practical for. It also provides finance leaders with more confidence that marketing dollars are being spent wisely.<\/p>\n<p>The value of MMM isn\u2019t in the output deck or the R-squared value. It\u2019s in how you use it \u2014 to make smarter bets, validate what\u2019s working and align the business around what truly drives growth.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Dig deeper: <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https:\/\/martech.org\/rethinking-media-mix-modeling-for-todays-complex-consumer-journey\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Rethinking media mix modeling for today\u2019s complex consumer journey<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!-- START INLINE FORM --><\/p>\n<div class=\"nl-inline-form border py-2 px-1 my-2\">\n<div class=\"row align-items-center justify-content-center nl-inline-container\">\n<div class=\"col-12 pb-1\">\n<p class=\"inline-form-text text-center mb-0\">Fuel up with free marketing insights.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 col-lg-auto pb-2 pb-lg-0\">\n<p class=\"inline-form-text text-center mb-0\">Email:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 col-lg-8 pe-lg-0\">\n<div class=\"form-nl-inline\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 col-lg-auto\">\n<p class=\"text-center mb-0\"><a class=\"nl-terms\" href=\"https:\/\/martech.org\/terms-of-service\/\" target=\"_blank\" aria-label=\"opens in a new tab\">See terms.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><!-- END INLINE FORM --><\/p>\n<p>The post <a href=\"https:\/\/martech.org\/why-mmm-makes-marketers-nervous-and-why-you-should-use-it-anyway\/\">Why MMM makes marketers nervous \u2014 and why you should use it anyway<\/a> appeared first on <a href=\"https:\/\/martech.org\/\">MarTech<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Mention marketing mix modeling (MMM) to a performance marketer and you\u2019ll get a strong reaction \u2014 either total excitement because it\u2019s all anyone\u2019s talking about or the look my client gave me when I brought it up, like they\u2019d just swallowed something bad. The reactions rarely reflect what MMM actually is or how it should &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/?p=10482\" class=\"more-link\">Read more<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Why MMM makes marketers nervous \u2014 and why you should use it anyway&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10482","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"featured_media_urls":{"thumbnail":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"medium":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"medium_large":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"large":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"1536x1536":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"2048x2048":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"inspiro-featured-image":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"inspiro-loop":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"inspiro-loop@2x":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"portfolio_item-thumbnail":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"portfolio_item-thumbnail@2x":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"portfolio_item-masonry":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"portfolio_item-masonry@2x":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"portfolio_item-thumbnail_cinema":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"portfolio_item-thumbnail_portrait":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"portfolio_item-thumbnail_portrait@2x":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false],"portfolio_item-thumbnail_square":["https:\/\/martech.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/People-looking-at-an-MMM-statue-in-fear-800x533.png",0,0,false]},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10482","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10482"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10482\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10482"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10482"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10482"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}