{"id":10586,"date":"2025-11-21T18:49:43","date_gmt":"2025-11-22T00:49:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/?p=10586"},"modified":"2025-11-21T18:49:43","modified_gmt":"2025-11-22T00:49:43","slug":"marketers-navigating-low-consumer-confidence-amid-high-holiday-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/attentionmedia.io\/?p=10586","title":{"rendered":"Marketers navigating low consumer confidence amid high holiday sales"},"content":{"rendered":"
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This holiday season, marketers are staring down a paradox that\u2019s hard to ignore: Consumers are feeling cautious, cutting back and worried about affording gifts \u2014 yet total retail sales are expected to hit an all-time high.<\/p>\n

On the one hand, sentiment surveys paint a picture of a financially strained shopper. Nearly half of Americans (47%) say they\u2019re worried they won\u2019t be able to afford gifts this year, according to research by Narvar, a post-purchase platform vendor. Two out of three plan to cut back. Deloitte is forecasting a 10% drop in average individual holiday spend, and PwC puts the decline at 5%. Also, 44% of middle-income consumers say they\u2019re worse off financially than a year ago, according to the University of Michigan.<\/p>\n

Dig deeper: U.S. online\u00a0holiday\u00a0shopping expected to hit a record $253 billion<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

But the big-picture forecasts? They tell a very different story. Mastercard, Visa, Adobe and the National Retail Federation all project U.S. retail sales will grow between 3.6% and 4.6% year over year, with ecommerce expected to hit a record $253.4 billion.<\/p>\n

The truth is, both views are technically correct. And that disconnect is exactly what marketers need to navigate.<\/p>\n

Rising sales, shrinking carts<\/h2>\n

Let\u2019s start with the math. Most of that projected growth is nominal \u2014 not real. In other words, shoppers are spending more because things cost more, not because they\u2019re loading up their carts.<\/p>\n

Inflation, combined with new tariffs on categories such as electronics and apparel, is driving up prices. Visa\u2019s forecast shows a 4.6% increase in sales \u2014 but only 2.2% of that is actual growth in goods sold. The rest is just higher prices.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Catherine Dummitt, VP of Marketing at Narvar, sees that tension playing out in consumer behavior.\u00a0<\/p>\n

\u201cThe 2025 holiday shopper isn\u2019t just browsing; they\u2019re budgeting and they\u2019re being smart about it,\u201d she said. \u201cThat mindset shifts everything. In a cautious economy, consumers are scrutinizing where their money goes and who they trust with it.\u201d<\/p>\n

Wealthier households are propping things up<\/h2>\n

The other big reason total sales are expected to rise? The wealthiest households are still spending \u2014 and they account for the majority of holiday spending. The gap between the haves and have-nots is widening and marketers need to be cognizant of that.<\/p>\n

Dig deeper: How to turn\u00a0holiday\u00a0shoppers into loyal friends, not one-time buyers<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Consumers earning over $100,000 represent 60% of expected holiday spend, according to Deloitte. They\u2019re not pulling back as much, and in many cases, they\u2019re still splurging on discretionary items. That\u2019s masking the deep cuts coming from younger and lower-income shoppers \u2014 such as Gen Z, who, according to Deloitte, expect to spend 23%\u201334% less than they did last year.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis group tends to skew younger: 58% are 44 or under, and many have kids at home,\u201d Dummitt said. \u201cMost live in households earning under $100,00 a year, and they are starting their holiday shopping even earlier than average, making deliberate choices as they go.\u201d<\/p>\n

Winners and losers in the holiday basket<\/h2>\n

Despite all the belt-tightening, some categories are still expected to perform well \u2014 especially those that align with cultural trends or are fueled by wealthier shoppers. Think high-demand electronics, gaming consoles, toys and viral fashion brands. Adobe\u2019s forecast puts these in the growth category.<\/p>\n

However, traditional discretionary retail \u2014 like apparel and home goods \u2014 is taking a hit. Average spend on retail goods is expected to fall 14% YoY, according to Deloitte, with shoppers trading down or skipping big-ticket items altogether.<\/p>\n

But that doesn\u2019t mean people are skipping the holidays, far from it.<\/p>\n

\u201cConsumers are thoughtful, engaged and paying close attention to value,\u201d Dummitt said. \u201cBut they\u2019re not cutting back on joy, they\u2019re just being smarter about how they spend.\u201d<\/p>\n

What marketers need to change \u2014 fast<\/h2>\n

So what does this mean for holiday marketing teams?<\/p>\n

For starters, urgency-heavy language like \u201cdon\u2019t miss out\u201d or \u201clast chance\u201d might backfire. \u201cThe holidays still sparkle, but the sentiment has shifted,\u201d Dummitt said. \u201cMany consumers are feeling cautious, not carefree, and the tone needs to evolve with that reality.\u201d<\/p>\n

Instead, she suggests shifting to messages rooted in support and reassurance \u2014 things like \u201cGifting made easy\u201d or \u201cWe\u2019ve got you covered.\u201d But messaging alone isn\u2019t enough.<\/p>\n

Dig deeper: Your\u00a0holiday\u00a0marketing playbook must put sincerity before sales<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cMessages that center on support land better when they\u2019re paired with meaningful actions like flexible returns, clear delivery guarantees, or protection if something goes wrong,\u201d she said. \u201cThese aren\u2019t just logistics. They are trust signals.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a year when so many shoppers feel financially stretched, small moments of reassurance matter. Especially with rising concerns around porch piracy, late deliveries and unclear return policies, brands that overpromise and underdeliver will lose customers fast.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen budgets are tight, the loss of a single package isn\u2019t just an inconvenience, it\u2019s a financial setback,\u201d Dummitt said. \u201cThose questions weigh heavily on consumers\u2019 minds, and they directly influence where people choose to shop.\u201d<\/p>\n

Early birds, higher stakes<\/h2>\n

Marketers also need to recognize that the traditional Q4 shopping window is already out of sync with consumer behavior. Shoppers started early \u2014 73% started shopping before Cyber Week, according to research by RetailMeNot, and nearly a quarter of budgets are spent before November even begins.<\/p>\n

That means campaigns that launched last week may already be too late to capture peak consumer attention.<\/p>\n

Dig deeper: Shoppers expect fewer discounts this\u00a0holiday\u00a0season<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

It also means expectations are higher. Consumers want free shipping, BNPL options and simple paths to checkout. They expect real-time updates and instant order confirmations. If something goes wrong, they want resolution \u2014 not excuses.<\/p>\n

\u201cCompared to last year, the margin for error is smaller. Loyalty is harder to earn and easier to lose,\u201d said Dummitt. \u201cThe brands that deliver confidence, from product page to doorstep and beyond, will turn one-time buyers into lasting customers.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lead with confidence, not noise<\/h2>\n

This season, the brands that win won\u2019t be the loudest \u2014 they\u2019ll be the most dependable.<\/p>\n

\u201cThis season calls for messages grounded in value, empathy and simplicity,\u201d Dummitt said. \u201cIt\u2019s not about pushing harder; it\u2019s about listening better. The brands that demonstrate they understand what matters most to people right now will stand out, not with volume, but with authenticity.\u201d<\/p>\n

So yes, sales may hit record highs. But don\u2019t mistake that for enthusiasm. For many consumers, this holiday isn\u2019t about buying more. It\u2019s about buying better \u2014 and from brands they can count on.<\/p>\n

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The post Marketers navigating low consumer confidence amid high holiday sales<\/a> appeared first on MarTech<\/a>.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

This holiday season, marketers are staring down a paradox that\u2019s hard to ignore: Consumers are feeling cautious, cutting back and worried about affording gifts \u2014 yet total retail sales are expected to hit an all-time high. On the one hand, sentiment surveys paint a picture of a financially strained shopper. Nearly half of Americans (47%) … <\/p>\n

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