Imagine a world where the day when executives review marketing dashboards isn’t fraught with tension. Where deviations from planned results don’t mean failure — either failure to predict correctly or failure to adequately control marketing people, processes and technology. Where the model for marketing management is something other than a mechanistic factory, with objectives of control and predictability.
Your world could be this way.
Business leaders crave certainty. They wish marketing were like a factory, where demand could be reliably manufactured. But executives have always been frustrated with marketing’s volatility. Continuous volatility means that marketing results almost always vary from plan. As they say in the military, “No plan survives contact with the enemy.” Despite that, dashboard day is still often judgment day. You either made your goal, surpassed it or failed.
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When marketing automation arrived, managers hoped it would make marketing controllable and predictable. Sadly, all that new data did was give us more evidence that it isn’t. The two constants in marketing are that markets are inherently uncertain and the pace of change continues to accelerate.
Accepting uncertainty doesn’t give marketing leaders an excuse to abandon planning and measurement. Instead, it invites marketers, their C-suite partners and investors to try a radically more useful and realistic way of looking at marketing metrics. Instead of seeing performance gaps as failures to meet outdated plans, treat them as valuable signals about how the market is changing. Marketing data informs judgment, guides experiments and reveals insightful patterns that help navigate the changing marketplace effectively.
Marketing as a navigator in the market ecosystem
A few months ago, I cruised through Iceberg Alley along the coast of Newfoundland. Here, thousands of icebergs, calved from Greenland glaciers, drift south each spring and summer, creating a spectacular parade. The little ones are called “bergy bits.” Some icebergs are made of ice that is thousands of years old. A few icebergs display gorgeous blue stripes formed by rainwater seeping into crevices.
Ships use highly trained navigators to direct them through these beautiful and treacherous waters. Advanced technology, such as radar and satellites, combined with specialized knowledge, lets navigators interpret conditions and guide vessels to safe passage. One Titanic was enough, thank you.
Although the stakes in marketing aren’t as high as those in Iceberg Alley, markets and oceans are both dynamic ecosystems. They constantly change, and if you want to arrive safely at your destination, it’s best to keep an expert eye on the horizon and use information to adapt to whatever arrives in your path next.
Marketing’s role as a navigator is essential. To an ecosystem navigator, deviations from expected (or hoped-for) metric results are information to guide them through the ever-changing market. Scoring marketing metrics as pass/fail, especially in a punitive manner, leaves enormous opportunity on the table.
Thriving in volatile markets requires trashing the idea of marketing as a factory where results can be manufactured predictably.
How deviation in metrics helps marketers navigate
Even when headed in a fairly reliable direction, trends can speed up, slow down or swerve unexpectedly. Therefore, metrics should be viewed flexibly.
A range of data types can be used to identify and track the environment, enabling the company to successfully navigate market change.
| Information type | How it helps navigate | Examples |
| Descriptive | Tracked over time, data reveals what happened in the past. Although it can’t predict the future, these data can inform trends and patterns of what changed and provide insight into the likelihood of future outcomes. | Revenue, pipeline, customer churn, web traffic, brand awareness, customer loyalty, social media sentiment |
| Comparative | Data can tell you how you are doing compared to something else. Performance and outcomes from different time periods, segments or against types of competitors will tell you where you are stronger or weaker and where differences matter. | Internal comparisons: Win rates of various products or channels compared by quarter-to-quarter growth, by price tier or region. External comparisons: 3rd party benchmarks, market share or share-of-voice compared to competitors |
| Diagnostic | While detailed data on specific tactical outcomes usually don’t belong on an executive dashboard, they are essential for answering questions such as why things might be changing or why deviations occurred. These metrics help form hypotheses about drivers of outcomes. They can provide signals about possible causes — but rarely definitive answers on their own. | Quantitative data: Funnel drop-off rates, campaign-level performance, price sensitivity indicators, customer journey analytics Qualitative data: Interviews, surveys, session replays |
| Predictive | The magic question everyone would love to have answered is, “What will happen?” Data can support probabilistic forecasts that give you likely ranges or scenarios. Sophisticated analysis, such as causal inference using AI, can help point to the most likely drivers of change. But predictions are not certainties. | Pipeline coverage ratios, demand forecasts, lead scoring and propensity models, CLV projections, ROI estimations |
| Behavioral sensing | These metrics detect shifts in customer behavior and market dynamics, helping you spot early signals that conditions may be changing. | Changes in buying cycles, emerging use cases, hannel mix shifts, engagement patterns |
| Adaptation | Data can help you decide whether to change what you are doing. These metrics support experimentation and learning rather than control. They provide indicators about which actions are worth amplifying, modifying or stopping. | A/B test results, experiment with velocity and success rates, time to insight, feedback loops from customers and partners |
| Constraint and risk | Markets are complex systems, and every participating company is influenced by system-level changes. Analysis can reveal system limitations and highlight friction, saturation or systemic risk. | Rising Customer Acquisition Costs, diminishing returns by channel, sales capacity utilization, volatility and variance measures |
But did we win?
Information about deviation from planned metrics is great, but marketing can’t just be the research team. It’s reasonable to hold marketing accountable for the goals that the business sets for them. Those goals must be grounded in realistic expectations (not just hopes and dreams).
Sometimes, marketing data provides direction for marketing-related change. Other times it shows that changes are needed in product, sales, service or finance. In any case, management should pay attention to the deviations in marketing metrics. When the iceberg navigator says move left, the pilot must take heed. The partnership goes both ways.
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