Four holiday reports reveal one big divide over AI

As marketers plan holiday campaigns, vendors are releasing reports on what consumers are expected to do this shopping season. Four arrived last week, and they tell much the same story about shoppers. Where they part company is AI.

Research from Basis, Salesforce, Attentive, and Alchemer all show a continuation of post-pandemic trends: Consumers are starting earlier, watching their spending more carefully, and expecting more relevant experiences. 

However, when the reports look at Al, they have very different views of its importance and how quickly it’s changing shoppers’ behavior.

Black Friday is only part of the story

One thing they all agree on is that while Black Friday remains an important waypost, it no longer defines the holiday shopping season.

Attentive found that 71% of consumers plan to start their holiday shopping before Black Friday, a 12 percentage-point increase from last year. Eighty-three percent begin planning before the shopping weekend, and most expect to keep shopping after Cyber Monday.

Basis reaches the same conclusion from a different angle. Sixty-eight percent shop early to avoid shipping delays, 57% buy throughout the year to take advantage of promotions, and more than half no longer see Black Friday and Cyber Monday as must-shop events because deals now run year-round.

That leaves marketers with a longer window to influence buying decisions, but also more competition for shoppers’ attention.

The reports also show shoppers becoming more deliberate.

Consumers are changing how they spend

Last year, Attentive found consumers responding to tighter budgets by buying fewer items and waiting for deeper discounts. This year, the behavior looks more strategic than reactive. Eighty-seven percent say economic conditions will influence how they shop, 42% plan to compare more brands, 41% will prioritize needs over wants, and 80% say an early discount of 40% or less is enough to prompt a purchase.

Basis found shoppers weighing free shipping, reviews, historical pricing, and convenience alongside discounts. Salesforce adds a broader economic context, reporting that consumer pessimism rose 16% year over year, and 13% more shoppers say their financial situation is getting worse.

The common thread isn’t simply that shoppers want lower prices. They are putting more thought into when, where, and why they buy.

AI depends on where you look

This is where the reports begin to diverge.

At first glance, the numbers don’t seem to fit together.

Attentive says 70% of consumers now use AI somewhere in their holiday shopping journey. Baby Boomer adoption alone increased from 34% during last year’s holiday season to 45% this year. It also found that 80% of consumers ignore brands that send irrelevant or non-personalized marketing.

Basis reports something quite different. Only 17% of consumers expect to use AI during holiday shopping, while another 23% remain undecided. Those who do plan to use it primarily want help finding deals, comparing products, and generating gift ideas.

That isn’t a contradiction. It’s a reminder that AI adoption depends on what you’re measuring.

Attentive looks broadly at AI across the shopping journey. Basis focuses on whether consumers expect to use AI while holiday shopping. Those aren’t the same question, so they produce different answers.

Salesforce examines a different stage altogether. Rather than measuring current consumer behavior, it argues AI agents are becoming another product discovery channel alongside search engines, marketplaces, and social platforms. The report is less about where shoppers are today than where retailers should prepare for tomorrow.

Alchemer shifts the conversation again by measuring trust instead of adoption. Only 35.4% of shoppers mostly or completely trust AI-generated recommendations. Reviews and recommendations from friends and family still carry more weight when consumers decide what to buy.

Taken together, the reports suggest consumers are moving through several stages of AI adoption at once. Many are comfortable using AI to discover products, compare options, or find gift ideas. Far fewer appear ready to let AI make purchasing decisions for them.

That distinction matters for marketers. Preparing product information for AI discovery is becoming increasingly important. So are the fundamentals that build confidence: accurate product information, strong reviews, relevant offers, and personalized experiences.

The disagreement is really about timing

All these surveys agree on where holiday shopping is heading. They disagree on how quickly AI is changing the journey.

Consumers are shopping earlier, planning purchases more carefully, and expecting brands to deliver more relevant experiences across a longer season. AI is becoming part of that process, but the reports show the market is still in transition. Consumers are experimenting with AI in growing numbers, marketers are expanding where they use it, and researchers are measuring different points along that evolution.

That makes the different AI findings a snapshot of a market deciding where AI belongs in the shopping experience.

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